Last week, I invested $10 each in Rivian, Keel Infrastructure, and Vistra. After one week, the portfolio is now worth $30.09.
Rivian is up 1.26%. Keel has gained 0.28%. Vistra is down 0.73%. That’s a nine-cent profit. Watch out, Warren, I’m on my way.
But a week of price changes doesn’t really mean much. What matters more is whether my reasons for buying these stocks still hold up.
Rivian is still getting harder to hate
Rivian was my bet on changing sentiment.
I did not buy it because investors suddenly love the company. I bought it because the conversation had started shifting from “Rivian is doomed” to “maybe this actually works.”
R2 was the reason. Deliveries had begun, early order conversion was running better than management expected, and analyst sentiment had become noticeably less hostile. Even the latest product news continues to center on Rivian expanding the R2 platform and rolling its technology across the lineup. (Car and Driver)
RIVN is currently my winner, with a magnificent 13-cent profit.
The thesis remains intact: I am betting on improving perception.
Keel insiders are still the story
Of the three, Keel is probably the most classic Alder Black investment.
Investors are waiting to see whether this former Bitcoin miner can truly become an AI data-center infrastructure company. Management has been talking with potential tenants at its three main sites, but investors want to see signed leases, not just presentations about electricity shortages. (Keel Infrastructure)
What got me interested was what happened while investors were waiting.
CEO Ben Gagnon bought 38,888 shares at $3.33 in August. COO Liam Wilson bought 30,769 shares at around $3.25 the day before. Those were open-market purchases, not compensation awards. (SEC)
Keel has made me three cents so far.
Thrilling.
But nothing about the reason I bought it has changed. The market remains skeptical, and insiders put their own money behind the other side of that argument.
Vistra is the AI-powered hangover bet
Vistra was different.
Wall Street never really abandoned the company. The stock fell because the enormous AI-power enthusiasm surrounding electricity producers cooled.
That disconnect got more interesting when CEO Jim Burke started buying shares around $135. Recent trading still leaves Vistra roughly one-third below its 52-week high, so the old AI-power premium has hardly returned. (MarketBeat)
Vistra is currently costing me seven cents.
I can endure the hardship.
Nothing has changed yet
So after week one:
Rivian is my sentiment-shift bet.
Keel is my insider-conviction bet.
Vistra is my beaten-down narrative-plus-insider-conviction bet.
The portfolio is essentially flat, which is exactly what to expect after a week. The interesting part will be watching whether the stories strengthen, weaken, or collapse entirely.
For now, all three $10 bets stay exactly where they are.